More afraid of the virus than of bad weather? Exploring the link between weather conditions and cycling volume in German cities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Cycling can only unfold its full potential for environmental sustainability, livable cities, and health if people cycle under most seasonal and weather conditions. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many people preferred cycling over public transit, in order to avoid infection. This change may also have affected the weather–cycling association: the pandemic mainly attracted new, fair-weather cyclists; and it may have encouraged cyclists to continue cycling, even under less favorable conditions. In this paper, we explore how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the association between weather and cycling. We analyze data from bicycle counting stations in Germany, combined with city- and hour-specific weather information and a continuous measure of pandemic intensity. The data set contains more than 2.2 million hourly bicycle count observations from 69 counting stations, covering the years 2017–2021. Results from the most transit-oriented cities in the sample, Berlin and Munich suggest that the cycling volume was more dependent on weather conditions at times of high pandemic intensity. This suggests that the pandemic put new people in the saddle, but these additional cyclists were largely fair-weather cyclists who only cycled when the weather was sufficiently nice. For policy, this could set two targets. First, encourage the new pandemic-cyclists to stay on the bike and, second, support them in transitioning into year-round cyclists eventually.